Disasters and Evictions: Findings from Housing Policy Debate’s Housing Policy and Climate Change Special Issue
May 1, 2022
May 1, 2022
Article 1: A Perfect Storm? Disasters and Evictions
Authors: Mark Brennan, Tanaya Srini, Justin Steil, Miho Mazereeuw, Larisa Ovalles
Published Online: 13 Oct 2021
DOI: 10.1080/10511482.2021.1942131
Article 2: Preventing Evictions After Disasters: The Role of Landlord-Tenant Law
Authors: E. L. Raymond, T. Green, M. Kaminski
Published Online: 15 July 2021
DOI: 10.1080/10511482.2021.1931929
Tags: climate change, disaster, resilience, displacement, housing insecurity, eviction, renters, law
Authors: Mark Brennan, Tanaya Srini, Justin Steil, Miho Mazereeuw, Larisa Ovalles
Published Online: 13 Oct 2021
DOI: 10.1080/10511482.2021.1942131
Article 2: Preventing Evictions After Disasters: The Role of Landlord-Tenant Law
Authors: E. L. Raymond, T. Green, M. Kaminski
Published Online: 15 July 2021
DOI: 10.1080/10511482.2021.1931929
Tags: climate change, disaster, resilience, displacement, housing insecurity, eviction, renters, law
There is little doubt among housing advocates that the eviction and climate crises are both taking an increasing toll on renters in the U.S. The high cost of rental housing puts renters in a highly precarious position and leads to high rates of eviction across the country, while disasters caused by climate change contribute to widespread displacement every year.
Yet despite extensive research on evictions and disasters and frequent press coverage of disaster-related evictions, practically no peer-reviewed research has explored the intersection of the two. Without scholarship on the impacts of disasters on evictions, there will be no grounds on which both climate and housing policies can meaningfully address disasters and evictions as inextricably linked.
Fortunately, two articles in the recent Housing Policy and Climate Change special issue of Housing Policy Debate (Vol. 32, No. 1) –“A Perfect Storm? Disasters and Evictions” by Mark Brennan, Tanaya Srini, Justin Steil, Miho Mazereeuw, and Larisa Ovalles, and “Preventing Evictions After Disasters: The Role of Landlord-Tenant Law” by E. L. Raymond, T. Green, and M. Kaminski– begin to fill this gap in the scholarship. Both articles test hypotheses at the heart of the intersection of disasters and evictions. Namely, to what extent do disasters lead to evictions nationally? And do local factors like landlord-tenant laws help or hurt tenants facing post-disaster evictions?
In “A Perfect Storm? Disasters and Evictions,” Brennan, Srini, Steil, Mazereeuw, and Ovalles test the relationship between disasters and evictions in disaster-prone counties nationwide. The authors also assess whether local housing market characteristics such as vacancy rate and FEMA assistance allotments mitigate the effects of disasters on evictions. To test this relationship, the authors combine counts of completed evictions at the county level from 2000 to 2015 with data on severe disasters –defined as the top 5% by property damage of the 24,383 county events that received Presidential Disaster Declarations between 1992 and 2015.
The models run using these variables indicate that a severe disaster is associated with a statistically significant increase in evictions in the year of a disaster and the year following a disaster and is weakly associated with an increase in evictions two years after a disaster. As the summary statistics for Model 1.2 in the table below show, severe disasters are still associated with an increase in evictions in the year of a disaster and the year following a disaster even after controlling for county characteristics. The authors also find that the effect of disasters decreases with increasing amounts of assistance delivered to renters, and the amount of FEMA aid per renter household is associated with fewer evictions up to two years after the disaster.
Yet despite extensive research on evictions and disasters and frequent press coverage of disaster-related evictions, practically no peer-reviewed research has explored the intersection of the two. Without scholarship on the impacts of disasters on evictions, there will be no grounds on which both climate and housing policies can meaningfully address disasters and evictions as inextricably linked.
Fortunately, two articles in the recent Housing Policy and Climate Change special issue of Housing Policy Debate (Vol. 32, No. 1) –“A Perfect Storm? Disasters and Evictions” by Mark Brennan, Tanaya Srini, Justin Steil, Miho Mazereeuw, and Larisa Ovalles, and “Preventing Evictions After Disasters: The Role of Landlord-Tenant Law” by E. L. Raymond, T. Green, and M. Kaminski– begin to fill this gap in the scholarship. Both articles test hypotheses at the heart of the intersection of disasters and evictions. Namely, to what extent do disasters lead to evictions nationally? And do local factors like landlord-tenant laws help or hurt tenants facing post-disaster evictions?
In “A Perfect Storm? Disasters and Evictions,” Brennan, Srini, Steil, Mazereeuw, and Ovalles test the relationship between disasters and evictions in disaster-prone counties nationwide. The authors also assess whether local housing market characteristics such as vacancy rate and FEMA assistance allotments mitigate the effects of disasters on evictions. To test this relationship, the authors combine counts of completed evictions at the county level from 2000 to 2015 with data on severe disasters –defined as the top 5% by property damage of the 24,383 county events that received Presidential Disaster Declarations between 1992 and 2015.
The models run using these variables indicate that a severe disaster is associated with a statistically significant increase in evictions in the year of a disaster and the year following a disaster and is weakly associated with an increase in evictions two years after a disaster. As the summary statistics for Model 1.2 in the table below show, severe disasters are still associated with an increase in evictions in the year of a disaster and the year following a disaster even after controlling for county characteristics. The authors also find that the effect of disasters decreases with increasing amounts of assistance delivered to renters, and the amount of FEMA aid per renter household is associated with fewer evictions up to two years after the disaster.
(image caption: an image of Table 3, with the summary statistics showing the relationship between severe disasters and evictions)
Beyond their quantitative analysis of the net effects of disasters on evictions, the authors also conducted semi-structured interviews to identify specific, on-the-ground mechanisms that connect disasters to evictions. One particularly messy thread emerged from these interviews: respondents suggested that at times landlords struggled to access assistance from FEMA or the Small Business Administration because of a lack of documentation of clear title to the land. “Without documented proof of title, federal agencies generally cannot disburse recovery aid, landlords cannot afford to repair their damaged units, and tenants consequently have fewer options” and a higher chance of experiencing post-storm eviction based on habitability clauses, the authors write. [1] This is a just one of many ways that climate and housing policy are inextricably linked at the level of implementation.
But are there local factors that can mitigate (or exacerbate) the likelihood that disasters will increase evictions? While Brennan et al. find that disasters are associated with an increase in evictions despite county characteristics like vacancy rate and educational attainment, Raymond, Green, and Kaminski find that a state’s legal landscape may mean the difference between an increase in evictions after a disaster and no increase at all.
In “Preventing Evictions After Disasters: The Role of Landlord-Tenant Law,” the authors measure whether landlord-tenant laws protect tenants from post-disaster evictions. Rather than the national scale, their focus is on block groups with high rates of FEMA disaster declarations in Florida (a state with pro-business landlord-tenant laws), Alabama and South Carolina (states with both pro-business and protectionist landlord-tenant laws), and Connecticut (a state with protectionist landlord-tenant laws).
The results of their study confirm the authors’ hypothesis that evictions rise following a disaster in states that do not have strong tenant protections. Even more disconcerting, the authors also find that evictions rise sharply after a disaster in places that have more landlord-friendly laws regardless of whether tenant protections are also in place. As Table 5 shows, being in a county with a declared state of emergency warranting public or individual aid is strongly predictive of rising evictions in states that have pro-business or contradictory landlord-tenant laws. In contrast, there is no significant rise in evictions following extreme flooding events in Connecticut, where landlord-tenant laws protect tenants.
Beyond their quantitative analysis of the net effects of disasters on evictions, the authors also conducted semi-structured interviews to identify specific, on-the-ground mechanisms that connect disasters to evictions. One particularly messy thread emerged from these interviews: respondents suggested that at times landlords struggled to access assistance from FEMA or the Small Business Administration because of a lack of documentation of clear title to the land. “Without documented proof of title, federal agencies generally cannot disburse recovery aid, landlords cannot afford to repair their damaged units, and tenants consequently have fewer options” and a higher chance of experiencing post-storm eviction based on habitability clauses, the authors write. [1] This is a just one of many ways that climate and housing policy are inextricably linked at the level of implementation.
But are there local factors that can mitigate (or exacerbate) the likelihood that disasters will increase evictions? While Brennan et al. find that disasters are associated with an increase in evictions despite county characteristics like vacancy rate and educational attainment, Raymond, Green, and Kaminski find that a state’s legal landscape may mean the difference between an increase in evictions after a disaster and no increase at all.
In “Preventing Evictions After Disasters: The Role of Landlord-Tenant Law,” the authors measure whether landlord-tenant laws protect tenants from post-disaster evictions. Rather than the national scale, their focus is on block groups with high rates of FEMA disaster declarations in Florida (a state with pro-business landlord-tenant laws), Alabama and South Carolina (states with both pro-business and protectionist landlord-tenant laws), and Connecticut (a state with protectionist landlord-tenant laws).
The results of their study confirm the authors’ hypothesis that evictions rise following a disaster in states that do not have strong tenant protections. Even more disconcerting, the authors also find that evictions rise sharply after a disaster in places that have more landlord-friendly laws regardless of whether tenant protections are also in place. As Table 5 shows, being in a county with a declared state of emergency warranting public or individual aid is strongly predictive of rising evictions in states that have pro-business or contradictory landlord-tenant laws. In contrast, there is no significant rise in evictions following extreme flooding events in Connecticut, where landlord-tenant laws protect tenants.
(image caption: an image of Table 5, showing the estimated models of evictions following disasters in four states)
These findings are in line with other research on the importance of state-wide legal and policy landscapes on eviction outcomes –a novel legal thread that ties into the burgeoning connection between disasters and evictions. The findings also suggest that although the county characteristics selected by Brennan et al. did not significantly weaken the correlation between disasters and evictions, certain state and county characteristics can influence post-disaster evictions for better or for worse.
Ultimately, as Brennan et al. write, “the complex interplay of climate change, environmental disasters, and housing is a particularly important area for future research and policy innovation as these challenges become more widespread.”[2] As a part of that research and innovation, eviction must be understood as a key process governing the “post-disaster trajectory of socioeconomically vulnerable households,” and eviction prevention must be treated as central to disaster recovery.[3]
About the authors:
Alex Charnov is a Master of City Planning candidate at the University of Pennsylvania and a Research Associate for Housing Policy Debate and the Housing Initiative at Penn (HIP).
~
Elora Lee Raymond is an Assistant Professor in the School of City and Regional Planning at Georgia Institute of Technology.
Timothy Green is an Assistant Professor in the Department of City Planning and Real Estate Development at Clemson University.
Molly Kaminski is a Data and Research Associate at Openfields.
~
Mark Brennan is a postdoctoral fellow in urban planning.
Tanaya Srini is a Technology Fellow for Civic Engagement and Government at the Ford Foundation and a graduate of MIT’s Department of Urban Studies and Planning.
Justin Steil is an Associate Professor of Law and Urban Planning in the MIT Department of Urban Studies and Planning.
Miho Mazereeuw is an Associate Professor of Architecture and Urbanism at MIT and the Director of the Urban Risk Lab.
Larisa Ovalles is a Research Scientist at the MIT Urban Risk Lab.
To read more from Housing Policy Debate, including from our issue on Housing Policy and Climate Change, visit our journal page on Taylor & Francis Online.
These findings are in line with other research on the importance of state-wide legal and policy landscapes on eviction outcomes –a novel legal thread that ties into the burgeoning connection between disasters and evictions. The findings also suggest that although the county characteristics selected by Brennan et al. did not significantly weaken the correlation between disasters and evictions, certain state and county characteristics can influence post-disaster evictions for better or for worse.
Ultimately, as Brennan et al. write, “the complex interplay of climate change, environmental disasters, and housing is a particularly important area for future research and policy innovation as these challenges become more widespread.”[2] As a part of that research and innovation, eviction must be understood as a key process governing the “post-disaster trajectory of socioeconomically vulnerable households,” and eviction prevention must be treated as central to disaster recovery.[3]
About the authors:
Alex Charnov is a Master of City Planning candidate at the University of Pennsylvania and a Research Associate for Housing Policy Debate and the Housing Initiative at Penn (HIP).
~
Elora Lee Raymond is an Assistant Professor in the School of City and Regional Planning at Georgia Institute of Technology.
Timothy Green is an Assistant Professor in the Department of City Planning and Real Estate Development at Clemson University.
Molly Kaminski is a Data and Research Associate at Openfields.
~
Mark Brennan is a postdoctoral fellow in urban planning.
Tanaya Srini is a Technology Fellow for Civic Engagement and Government at the Ford Foundation and a graduate of MIT’s Department of Urban Studies and Planning.
Justin Steil is an Associate Professor of Law and Urban Planning in the MIT Department of Urban Studies and Planning.
Miho Mazereeuw is an Associate Professor of Architecture and Urbanism at MIT and the Director of the Urban Risk Lab.
Larisa Ovalles is a Research Scientist at the MIT Urban Risk Lab.
To read more from Housing Policy Debate, including from our issue on Housing Policy and Climate Change, visit our journal page on Taylor & Francis Online.
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[1] Mark Brennab, Tanaya Srini, Justin Steil, Miho Mazereeuw & Larissa Ovalles (2022). "A Perfect Storm? Disasters and Evictions." Housing Policy Debate, 32:1, pp. 66.
[2] Ibid, pp. 70.
[3] E. L. Raymond, T. Green & M. Kaminski (2022). "Preventing Evictions After Disasters: The Role of Landlord-Tenant Law." Housing Policy Debate, 32:1, pp. 36.
[2] Ibid, pp. 70.
[3] E. L. Raymond, T. Green & M. Kaminski (2022). "Preventing Evictions After Disasters: The Role of Landlord-Tenant Law." Housing Policy Debate, 32:1, pp. 36.